Predicting Own Action: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Induced by Proper Scoring Rules
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper studies a mechanism to incentivize agents who predict their own future actions and truthfully declare their predictions. In a crowdsouring setting (e.g., participatory sensing), obtaining an accurate prediction of the actions of workers/agents is valuable for a requester who is collecting real-world information from the crowd. If an agent predicts an external event that she cannot control herself (e.g., tomorrow’s weather), any proper scoring rule can give an accurate incentive. In our problem setting, an agent needs to predict her own action (e.g., what time tomorrow she will take a photo of a specific place) that she can control to maximize her utility. Also, her (gross) utility can vary based on an eternal event. We first prove that a mechanism can satisfy our goal if and only if it utilizes a strictly proper scoring rule, assuming that an agent can find an optimal declaration that maximizes her expected utility. This declaration is self-fulfilling; if she acts to maximize her utility, the probabilistic distribution of her action matches her declaration, assuming her prediction about the external event is correct. Furthermore, we develop a heuristic algorithm that efficiently finds a semi-optimal declaration, and show that this declaration is still self-fulfilling. We also examine our heuristic algorithm’s performance and describe how an agent acts when she faces an unexpected scenario.
منابع مشابه
Cost Benefit Analysis of Higher Education by Educated Women in Iran: The Tale of Self Fulfilling Prophecy and Low Labor Force Participation
متن کامل
Self-efficacy as a moderator of negative and positive self-fulfilling prophecy effects: mothers' beliefs and children's alcohol use
This research examined two issues relevant to self-fulfilling prophecies. First, it examined whether children’s risk for alcohol use, as indicated by their self-efficacy to refuse alcohol from peers, moderated their susceptibility to negative and positive self-fulfilling prophecy effects created by their mothers. Second, it explored behavioral mediators that could be involved in the self-fulfil...
متن کاملCatharsis, aggression, and persuasive influence: self-fulfilling or self-defeating prophecies?
Does media endorsement for catharsis produce a self-fulfilling or a self-defeating prophecy? In Study 1, participants who read a procatharsis message (claiming that aggressive action is a good way to relax and reduce anger) subsequently expressed a greater desire to hit a punching bag than did participants who read an anticatharsis message. In Study 2, participants read the same messages and th...
متن کاملYou Are What You Wear: An Interactive Demonstration of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
This article presents evidence in support of an interactive classroom activity that demonstrates the self-fulfilling prophecy. After a brief description of the topic, 5 volunteers from an introductory psychology course of 81 students blindly donned one of several labeled hats (i.e., intelligent, attractive, good leader, annoying, lazy). The instructor told volunteers to treat each other in acco...
متن کاملInformation Acquisition , Coordination , and Fundamentals in a Financial Crisis ∗
This paper reconciles the two explanations of a financial crisis, the self-fulfilling prophecy and the fundamental causes, in an empirically-relevant framework, by explicitly modeling the costly voluntary acquisition of information about fundamentals in a variant of Diamond and Dybvig (1983). In the “run” equilibrium investors engage in costly evaluation of projects, so that banks with lower-re...
متن کامل